South Africa

In a debate at the University of the Witwatersrand on Tuesday night Western Cape Premier Ebrahim Rasool drew a link between the recent wave of xenophobic violence and larger currents of intolerance in the country. “Xenophobia, racism, sexism, in fact all fundamentalism, all acts of intolerance belong to one family and if you are to deal with one member of the family, you have got to be consistent in dealing with all members of that family,” he said.

In a sense Rasool’s arguments most reminded me of the larger debates about transformation that characterized South African politics in the second half of the 1990s. That the country has already moved away from these fundamental tenets of the process embodied in the Truth and Reconciliation Commission process is dispiriting and Rasool is right to encourage South Africans to revive those principles and to remember the linkages of various forms of intolerance.

Thabo Mbeki is receiving criticism from just about all sides these days. His reactions to the xenophobic violence are being called “too little, too late.” The country’s manufacturers fear that rising costs will cut into competitiveness, and heads of state always suffer when their economies falter. Morgan Tsvangirai has asserted that Mbeki is unfit to broker the Zim crisis for SADC. The utterly disillusioned South African Communist Party believes that Mbeki should face a recall and the country should hold elections early to replace him. And then there are the columnists. Increasingly it is difficult to believe that Mbeki will last one more year with the way his critics all around are sharpening their knives.  

This analysis in The Mail & Guardian seems to capture pretty well the ways in which recent events — most obviously, but not solely, the explosion of violence against foreign Africans — seem to have shaken the ruling party from its complacency. The responses from Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma have been especially telling.

Even as Zuma has shown a fairly deft political touch on many of the issues facing the country, especially compared to Thabo Mbeki’s tin ear, it is still disquieting to hear talk from Mbeki’s anointed successor of the ANC being the inevitable outcome of divinely sanctioned rule destined to endure forever. This is not the sort of talk that seems likely to convince outsiders and the ANC’s internal critics that the country is moving in the right direction. Such perceptions are not vitally important. Nor are they meaningless.

Mbeki, meanwhile, continues to oscillate between shrill and defensive posturing and seeming fecklessness. One wonders who will be happier when the 2009 transition rolls around, the masses of South Africans who have soured on Mbeki and his leadership or Mbeki himself, who will likely find a golden parachute into the private sector.

Anyone who has traveled in South Africa and talked politics with people has heard something along this lines: This country is just like Rhodesia, and under black rule we’re going to turn into Zimbabwe. This sort of “When We” alarmism, equal parts racist tripe and romanticized fatuousness is also common among expats around the world and among former colonialists of a certain age. It was thus refreshing to see that Jeremy Cronin, in his Chris Hani Memorial Lecture, addressed this question directly. One need not ardently support the South African Communist Party (I do not) to find a great deal of merit in Cronin’s cogent argument that whatever South Africa’s problems, it is not likely to follow the path of Zimbabwe.

[Cross-posted at the FPA Africa Blog.]

I do not even feign to be an economist, but many observers, including Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, worry that the country’s current account deficit represents a “major chink in [South Africa’s] armour.” The declining value of the rand and the tenuous state of global markets is also a concern, but as Manuel points out, probably wisely, “If I were concerned every time the market moves I would probably have been committed to an asylum a long time ago.”

There can be little doubt that the past year has been the most trying in Thabo Mbeki’s oft-tumultuous presidency. Tonight he gave his State of the Union address before parliament. He certainly had plenty of fodder from which to work: The electricity crisis, crime, poverty, the daunting prospect of hosting the 2010 World Cup, and simply a general sense of malaise.

Mbeki provided a positive spin, called for the nation to pull together to confront the issues facing South Africa, and praised his countrymen for their resilience in the face of recent difficulties, especially the power delivery nightmare.

The response to Mbeki’s optimism has been skepticism in many, but far from all, circles. Helen Zille,  leader of the Democratic Alliance, whose job it is to be critical, took her job seriously, criticizing the president for “business as usual.” The editors of The Mail & Guardian approached Mbeki’s address fatalistically as did other observers. One imagines that those critics were likely not placated by Mbeki’s address and that Mbeki’s supporters found much with which to be pleased. In other words, status quo ante is likely to prevail.

Let’s forget, if at all possible, the power outages, political debates, Robert Mugabe’s destabilizing jackassery, and all of the other mundane grimness that afflicts South African public life these days. For the world of sport provides two of the saddest stories of all. The first is the fact that Bafana Bafana appears set to bow out of the African Nations Cup with barely a peep barring some sort of freak miracle involving St. Jude smiling upon their boots (and frowning upon some others). It seems like a long way from the rarefied air South African football seemed to occupy in the period from 1996 to 1998 or so.  If the possibility of a flameout from the country’s footballers isn’t enough to arouse paroxysms of frustration (and drinking) then the impending retirement of Protea Shaun Pollack will push most fans of South Africa’s sporting scene over the edge.

The posting has been light of light because of travel and a conference and the general need every so often to take a break. I will pick the pace back up soon. The Foreign Policy Association published my latest think piece last week, “South Africa’s Magnificent Catastrophe,” in which I make some tentative (and merely suggestive) comparisons between current South African politics and the state of United States politics in 1800. 

At The Mail & Guardian Jean-Jacques Cornish has a feature in which he provides an overview of Africa’s 2007. I may as well also remind you of my own South Africa: Year in Review feature for the Foreign Policy Association and this blog.

What does the ANC have in store for it in 2008? The party will have the chance to paint its picture in its traditional “January 8″ statement at a gathering in Pretoria to honor the ANC’s 96th birthday next week. A day before the newly constituted National Executive Committee will meet. Two key issues will be Thabo Mbeki’s lame-duck status and the corruption charges hanging over Jacob Zuma’s head. Thabo Mbeki is not known for going down without a fight. And a Zuma conviction (or even a vigorous prosecutorial case)  in the trial scheduled to begin in August will throw the succession doors open once again.