South Africa

It almost certainly comes as a shock to absolutely no one that Robert Mugabe has acted in bad faith and announced unilaterally (even as he has been in the midst of negotiations with the factions of the Movement for Democratic Change) that elections will be held on March 2. Now the MDC is scrambling to figure out what to do. Their options are circumscribed: The opposition can choose to boycott the elections, guaranteeing another Mugabe victory, which the wily tyrant will depict as a mandate, or to participate in elections that are pretty certain to be a sham, in which Mugabe secures victory, thus claiming a mandate. This frustrating hobson’s choice encapsulates the frustration of politics in Robert Mugabe’s brutocracy.

Stephanie Hanson, news editor for the Council on Foreign Relations, recently interviewed Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC’s most visible leader. Tsvangirai gives thoughtful answers to questions on a host of issues, though at time the hopelessness of the opposition’s plight seems almost tangible in his words. He expressed his wish for the world’s response to the situation in Zimbabwe:  “The elections that are forthcoming in Zimbabwe must be raised to the same level like Darfur. There must be an international outcry.” But what has the west’s supposed outcry (which frankly seems rather muted and is by any measure ineffectual) accomplished in Darfur? About as much as it has in Zimbabwe.

Tyrants only know one language, and that is the universal lingua franca of power. Power does not have to mean force, though force is never far from power. Until Mugabe is forced to change, to relent, or to cede control, he will do none of those things. The same can be said for Omar al-Bashir and the thugs he empowers in Darfur. Hand wringing is not enough. It never is.

It’s always proven remarkably easy for the West to make promises to Africa. It has been in the area of following through on those promises where the outside world has so often fallen short. Thabo Mbeki has identified the crises in Sudan as an area in which promises have been made, and at least to this point, have gone unfulfilled:

A majority of the countries who undertook to assist Sudan financially in implementing the African country’s peace agreement have not fulfilled their pledges, President Thabo Mbeki said on Wednesday.

Briefing the media at Tuynhuys in Cape Town following a meeting with his Sudanese counterpart Omar al-Bashir, Mbeki said that despite the international donor community having pledged to assist with equipment and other resources required to help the Sudanese government resolve its political crisis, many of the countries still had not yet delivered.

“Various countries around the world have not yet responded,” he said.

He said making the resources available to the Sudanese government was a critical element for the resolution of the crisis, and that the South African government would do everything in its power to ensure that countries fulfilled their pledges.

“We need to bring everybody on board,” Mbeki said.

South Africa is often caught in a difficult situation in its role as a continental leader. But Mbeki is right: when the world does not follow through on its promises, especially in a crisis situation such as that in both Darfur, and increasingly in the once-again rumbling south of Sudan, it almost guarantees that chaos will continue to reign.

The UN recently called for a rare summit on Africa and predictably, promises were made, agendas were set, ideas proposed. While it is good to see Africa on the global agenda in such a visible way, many Africans are rightly skeptical:

“Africa’s agenda will increasingly be defined by the African Union,” said AU chairman Alpha Oumar Konare. “We hope to move beyond words, to move beyond promises because too many promises have already been made to Africa.”

One does, however, wonder if Konare is not whistling past the graveyard. Naturally Africans should set their agenda. But so far, the AU, for example, has shown little capacity for effectiveness in Sudan. So far, SADC has proved loath to intervene in Zimbabwe. Perhaps it is still right that Africa choose to address and not to address these issues. But it seems that if the world wants to help, Africans ought to welcome that help, as long as African leaders make clear that they set the agenda and they provide the leadership and they create the structures in which Europeans, Americans and others might operate. In other words, African solutions for African problems, but with whatever help the West is willing to provide in a subordinate capacity.

Western involvement does not have to mean neocolonialism, though as Thabo Mbeki argued before the General Assembly yesterday, the very structure of that organization does favor rich nations over poor ones. Mbeki further asserted that even with their augmented status, developed nations are failing the developing world.  Perhaps the west is listening (now look who is whistling past the graveyard!) and can come to the conclusion that western help under African control might pave a new road for African relations with Europe, the United States, and elsewhere.

Here is a quick survey of Africa-related news stories that have appeared in the last few days:

Sierra Leone’s voters went to the polls this past weekend and  it appears to have gone off with few allegations of improprieties. Hopefully this marks the first small steps in the country’s redemption.

Sam Dealey, Time magazine’s Africa correspondent, argues in the New York Times that it is unwise, problematic and unnecessary to exaggerate death tolls from crises such as Darfur as some activists are wont to do.

Also in the Times we learn that China’s interest in Africa extends to Chad’s oil resources. It can be assumed that anywhere in Africa where there is oil, China’s presence will soon follow.

Afrifocus has again turned its attention to China’s role in Africa. Worth checking out are a Gareth Evans and  Donald Steinberg article arguing that China’s mindset toward Darfur has changed to the point that “instead of being part of the problem, it could play a significant role in the solution.” If Evans and Steinberg are correct in their assessment, this would provide a pretty good example of why we should never have static conceptions of nation states and their policies.

Also worth checking out is this issue of  Pambazuka News, which is dedicated to the issue of China’s role in Africa, and two Foreign Policy in Focus articles: “China Provokes Debate in Africa” and “China in Africa: It’s (Still) the Governance, Stupid.”

The sometimes problematic nature of China’s relationship with Africa is nowhere more stark than in Beijing’s engagement with Sudan (see also here, here, here, here, and here). Over at The New Republic Eric Reeves, one of the foremost authorities on the crisis in Darfur, has a piece telling us to be wary of China’s support for UN Resolution 1769, in which the United Nations Security Council authorized a joint UN-African Union (AU) force to intervene in Darfur.

Although China did vote to support the resolution this year (last year they abstained so as not to breach Khartoum’s sovereignty, or so they would have had you believe) Reeves would not be so fast to heap praise on Beijing for coming around: “Winning China’s support came at a significant price. Khartoum’s staunchest ally voted for the resolution only after it had helped to secure the elimination of key provisions.” Reeves also shows that there is blame enough to go around among Western powers and not just China.

It will be seen if this resolution proves to be another half-measure that falls short in reality. One hopes that a demonstrable use of force — the threat of which really has been the only stick to which Khartoum has responded consistently — will set the stage for a long-term solution in Darfur. But until we are given reason to believe otherwise, skepticism will rule the day. Nonetheless, the authorization of troops and the willingness to use force signals a vital step forward if the troop presence comes to pass.

Privation connected to poverty and vulnerability to climate change is wreaking havoc throughout the continent. Lesotho continues to suffer from drought-fueled food shortages. The droughts have also affected Swaziland and South Africa. The economic crisis in Swaziland has led to increased sex trafficking among children as well as women. Informal settlements in Namibia are embody hell on earth. Climate change is leading to an increase in malaria cases in Kenya.

 The news of the increased UN-African Union peacekeeping presence has raised hopes of humanitarian relief for the people of Darfur. Sudan claims that it will support the troop presence. We;ll see how long Khartoum’s conciliatory attitude lasts. Some Sudanese, meanwhile, are looking to South Africa for a blueprint for peace.

At Foreign Policy Stephan Faris worries that the boomlet that parts of Africa appear to be enjoying might be chimerical, with oil fueling another manifestation of the resource curse. The Council for Foreign Relations explores the process of ”hunting for elusive peace.” Despite these real concerns, there also is real progress on parts of the continent, as Kofi Annan argues in the Mail & Guardian.

At The New Republic Eliza Griswold analyzes the Somalia crisis as “the other failed invasion,” which is problematic inasmuch as viewing Africa through the prism of Iraq manages to be both too Western-centric while at the same time allowing Iraq to disproportionately warp our views of other issues.

In order to address the mindboggling inflation rate in Zimbabwe (is it really possible that it could reach 100,000% by the end of the year?) the government has issued  a Z$200,000 note worth $1 US. Meanwhile, add water shortages to the daily sufferings of the people of Zim.  

Your faithful scribe is almost but not quite back home and thus to something resembling normalcy. Full-scale blogging should resume next week. In the meantime, here are some Africa-related links:

In Zimbabwe the Interception of Communications Bill only awaits Robert Mugabe’s signature. My guess is he’s thrilled to do so, helping seal Zimbabwe’s totalitarian status. Meanwhile MacDonald Dzirutwe avers in the Mail & Guardian that Mugabe’s newest get-tough economic policies are likely to represent only a short-term palliative with deleterious long-range effects.

It is now Congo-Brazzaville’s opportunity to hold elections that raise all sorts of questions about probity, organizational skills, effectiveness, and the like.

In the category of “this comes as news to whom, exactly?” we must place a refugees International report that asserts that Sudan’s rape laws are making the human rights catastrophe in Darfur worse. I do not aim my sarcasm at Refugees International, but rather at a crisis that is so far gone that such obvious accounts still qualify as being significantly newsworthy.

In Accra we might soon find out if we are closer to seeing the emergence of a United States of Africa. Just five years after its inception as a new and better organization of African states, the African Union (AU) debates tightening their confederation even more.  

 In South Africa:

Petrol prices continue to pose problems, with recent price drops in some areas accompanied by price hikes in others. 

As the ANC meets to debate future directions, the party’s succession battle accelerates, with a question that has been a subtext for some time now rising to the fore – does the party leader of necessity have to be the political standard bearer? Meanwhile, Thabo Mbeki has not so subtly hinted to the South African Communist Party (SACP) that it might be time for the comrades to steer their own separate course. I have argued for years that the only serious challenge to the ANC will come from the left, not the right, from black politicians, not disenchanted whites. Apparently Mbeki is willing to accelerate the process.

The mass action strikes are finally over. A South African cabinet minister and a prominent labour leader weigh in on their meaning.

Finally, the Springboks have had their luggage pilfered.  Is this another angle for the South African crime epidemic? Not exactly. The thefts appear to have occurred in Australia, where the South African ruggers are preparing for the next part of their Tri-Nations away leg.  

A couple of stories worth following as your faithful scribe continues his honeymoon on the west coast of British Columbia: 

A recent UN report indicates that human trafficking is on the rise in East Africa.

Hopes for peace in Sudan ebb and flow, wax and wane. Right now they flow and wax. Not to be pessimistic, but soon enough they’ll ebb and wane. My FPA colleague Daniel Graeber looks at war crimes in Darfur in the latest Great Decisions Analysis. You can also follow his work on the FPA War Crimes Blog.

Here is a quick roundup of news stories this morning:

For three different perspectives on the general strike in South Africa see this story in the Mail & Guardian,  this from Green Left, and this from The Sowetan. (Hat tip to Peter Limb at H-SAfrica.)  See also this story from All Africa. And for concerns about the effect the strike will have on tourism, see here.

On the latest from Zimbabwe see this account of the ruling party’s meeting with the Movement for Democratic Change. Color me skeptical. This Michael Gerson piece in The Washington Post helps explain why. As does this.

The ANC leadership succession race is heating up. For some analysis see here.

Foreign Policy has released its annual Failed State Index, and sadly, though not unexpectedly, it is pregnant with African countries. The Mail & Guardian has more here. Not surprisingly, Sudan tops the list. And plucky little Guinea-Bissau is making its own mark by staking its claim as Africa’s cocaine capital.