South Africa

On Sunday former United Nations Secretary general Kofi Annan gave the fifth annual Nelson Mandela lecture at Madiba’s foundation. In his talk Annan entreated African leaders to promote democracy and good governance and to disavow tyranny.

It turns out that throughout much of the continent, Africans are already heeding the call for democracy and away from kleptocracy and dictatorship. In the newest issue of The Journal of Democracy Daniel N. Posner and Daniel J. Young have an article posing the argument that peaceful transitions of power may well already be underway, with force having given way to a general trend toward the rule of law.  In sum, that Africans are benefiting from the “institutionalization of political power.”

Drought has exacerbated a food shortage which in turn has been exacerbating an HIV/AIDS-fueled health crisis in the tiny Mountain Kingdom of Lesotho. Maseru has declared a state of emergency. And things are probably going to get worse before they get better.

It doesn’t take much to tip the scales toward economic catastrophe for the people southern Africa. A poor harvest followed by a bitterly cold winter means that Swaziland is experiencing some of its worst economic conditions in recent years. Food and medical scarcities, inadequate shelter, and general economic vulnerability have created conditions for a miserable winter for South Africa’s tiny neighbor.   

Not at all surprisingly, the Mugabe government’s unilateral price cutting, and crackdown on those who would defy it, has proven to be a short-term palliative and not a long-term solution. Store shelves are empty. Shortages reign. Prices may be low, but no one can buy goods. Producers have stopped producing, store owners have stopped purchasing goods — for both, the price cuts mean that they operate at a loss most of the time.

Dissenters argue, almost assuredly rightly, that this is yet another ploy in Mugabe’s arsenal of tricks, demogoguery to appease the masses and win support or at least ease some of the sting of opposition. For now one of the most vocal critics of Mugabe, Pius Ncube, the Roman Catholic Archbishop of Bulawayo, hopes that the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union will be able to pressure Mugabe into enacting democratic reforms or something resembling them. But one senses that Ncube is skeptical of the efficacy of these organizations and of Thabo Mbeki, the AU’s designated choice to mediate the crisis in Zimbabwe.  For its part, South Africa would like the SADC to step in and try to salvage that which is salvageable in Zimbabwe’s economy. The AU wants South Africa to act. South Africa wants SADC to act.

It would be nice if the African Union, South Africa, and SADC would get together and act in concert rather than pass the buck. I continue to be sleptical about precisely what can be done to force Mugabe’s hand, but this sort of circularity surely is not the solution.

The African Union’s (AU)  predecessor, the Organization of African Unity (OAU), established a process called the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) as part of the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD). The AU has moved forward with APRM, which, whatever its shortcomings, holds great promise to help African nations spur one another toward good governance, best practices, and accountability. So far 26 African countries have signed on to the process, with others soon to follow. In keeping with the spirit of the African Renaissance that Thabo Mbeki has long championed, the APRM theoretically will enable Africans to develop African solutions for African problems, further moving the continent away from both the burdens of the colonial past and the dependence of the neocolonial present.

South Africa is now in the final stages of dealing with its review, which consisted of a combination of criticism, suggestions, concerns, and praise. The South African response has run the gamut from incensed to dilatory to resigned to determined. Initially, the word was that the South Africans were outraged and that Pretoria was set to reject the entire report summarily. But now that South Africa is participating in the African Union summit in Accra, Mbeki’s administration seems more acquiescent and even accepting of the APRM. Mbeki savvily sidestepped most of the most ardent (some Africans might say “strident”) criticisms of what he called  ”a positive report that acknowledges the huge strides made by South Africa in transforming the country into a vibrant democracy with one of the most progressive constitutions in the world”.

I think I understand both the harsh initial response and the more conciliatory recent indications from Mbeki’s government. In the first place it must have been difficult for South Africa to swallow criticisms — some rather harsh — from a body that consists of many nations that have not achieved South Africa’s successes, from countries that, right or wrong, South Africa sees as being its lessers. South Africa sees itself as a continental leader and regional power. Hearing criticisms from countries that enjoy the fruits of operating from within South Africa’s penumbra surely must have galled Pretoria, which likely expected a rubber stamp and pats on the back from the continent’s leaders. It is perhaps reassuring that such obeisance did not emerge from the APRM.

But South Africa’s change of tone also stands to reason. After all, South Africa fancies itself as the driving force behind the continent’s hoped-for future direction. Any African Renaissance that occurs will have South Africa’s imprimatur and South Africa’s fingerprints all over it. For South Africa to scuttle one of the chief mechanisms by which the continent can achieve its goals would be churlish, impetuous, and self destructive.

But there is another possible explanation for South Africa’s newfound change of heart: Initially the government was stung, in a sense, by the criticisms, which surely seemed harsh and highly critical. But the passage of time has allowed South Africa to take a step back, to find the positive in the report, to look at the negatives as constructive criticism, and as importantly, to look at that criticism as being largely accurate. The truth sometimes hurts, it is said. But that pain makes it no less true.      

In South Africa’s tiny neighbor, Swaziland, recent reports indicate that more people live in informal settlements than in formal neighborhoods, which has spurred the country to push to improve living conditions in urban areas. Officials have decided to upgrade the informal settlements (often called townships) rather than build new housing.

China’s increasing presence in Africa has become clear in the past couple of years. (For my own writing on this – with links – see here, here, here, here and here.) The Asian continent’s other giant, India has been watching, and has designs on increasing its presence in Africa. China’s role at best represents a dual-edged sword, and in the most realistic assessments Beijing represents a potentially dangerous and destabilizing force for most of Africa. Perhaps India will provide another option for African countries faced with the enticement of Chinese investment or none at all. 

The ANC Policy Conference in Midrand wraps up today after three days of political dialogue that the Mail & Guardian has described as “robust.” Despite Thabo Mbeki’s protests that things have not been too robust, certain issues that we have discussed here before — succession, the linkage between the party leadership and the national presidency — demand serious, and thus sometimes intense discussion. Mbeki’s desire to downplay internal division makes sense from the vantage point of the party. That same division, however, is healthy for the country. When that debate falls silence is truly when the time to worry will have arrived. Viva contentiousness.

Incidentally, Mbeki has been busy these days. In addition to dealing with feisty ANC politicians he also is the head of the South African delegation to the African Union summit in Accra that, as I reported yesterday, might be pushing toward the establishment of a United States of Africa.

 Meanwhile officials have announced that the main South Africa-Mozambique border crossing at Ressano Garcia is extending its hours from 10 pm until midnight. Anyone who has crossed that border knows that anything that might alleviate congestion represents a welcome change.

Your faithful scribe is almost but not quite back home and thus to something resembling normalcy. Full-scale blogging should resume next week. In the meantime, here are some Africa-related links:

In Zimbabwe the Interception of Communications Bill only awaits Robert Mugabe’s signature. My guess is he’s thrilled to do so, helping seal Zimbabwe’s totalitarian status. Meanwhile MacDonald Dzirutwe avers in the Mail & Guardian that Mugabe’s newest get-tough economic policies are likely to represent only a short-term palliative with deleterious long-range effects.

It is now Congo-Brazzaville’s opportunity to hold elections that raise all sorts of questions about probity, organizational skills, effectiveness, and the like.

In the category of “this comes as news to whom, exactly?” we must place a refugees International report that asserts that Sudan’s rape laws are making the human rights catastrophe in Darfur worse. I do not aim my sarcasm at Refugees International, but rather at a crisis that is so far gone that such obvious accounts still qualify as being significantly newsworthy.

In Accra we might soon find out if we are closer to seeing the emergence of a United States of Africa. Just five years after its inception as a new and better organization of African states, the African Union (AU) debates tightening their confederation even more.  

 In South Africa:

Petrol prices continue to pose problems, with recent price drops in some areas accompanied by price hikes in others. 

As the ANC meets to debate future directions, the party’s succession battle accelerates, with a question that has been a subtext for some time now rising to the fore – does the party leader of necessity have to be the political standard bearer? Meanwhile, Thabo Mbeki has not so subtly hinted to the South African Communist Party (SACP) that it might be time for the comrades to steer their own separate course. I have argued for years that the only serious challenge to the ANC will come from the left, not the right, from black politicians, not disenchanted whites. Apparently Mbeki is willing to accelerate the process.

The mass action strikes are finally over. A South African cabinet minister and a prominent labour leader weigh in on their meaning.

Finally, the Springboks have had their luggage pilfered.  Is this another angle for the South African crime epidemic? Not exactly. The thefts appear to have occurred in Australia, where the South African ruggers are preparing for the next part of their Tri-Nations away leg.  

First South African workers become embroiled in a general strike the end of which is not in sight. Now it appears that Nigerian workers are set to embark on their own general strike. The Nigerian strikes will be the result of rising fuel costs, an increase in Value Added Taxes, and the sale of government-owned oil refineries to cronies of Olusegun Obasanjo in the former President’s final days in office. The government has made some compromises, but not enough to placate the Nigeria Labour Congress.