South Africa

There is a new story about political intrigue, firings, scandal, corruption, and crime reverberating through South Africa with the issue of an arrest warrant and suspension of National Police Commissioner (and head of Interpol) Jackie Selebi. This might represent Thabo Mbeki’s stiffest political challenge yet, which is in itself saying something. 

The Mail & Guardian editorializes hopefully on the prospects of Africans developing African solutions to African problems, using the Ibrahim Index  as a springboard and less hopefully on the Salebi mess.

Meanwhile, recent data from an internal ANC audit of party membership indicates that Jacob Zuma is the front-runner for the party’s presidency. One wonders if this sort of news might not hasten Cyril Ramaphosa to leave the private sector and return to public service. Ramaphosa, who has remained steadfast that he will not run for the ANC leadership, stands as my (mild) upset candidate to emerge with the party and national presidency. 

What are the odds of reforming Nigeria’s corruption ridden oil industry? The Economist lays out the long odds.

The Boston Globe has an editorial about how scientists increasingly can trace DNA — “genetic markers” – to tell us a great deal about not only the origins but also the movement of human beings from our earliest origins in Africa to today.

Is South Africa indifferent to the Darfur crisis? Pambazuka News believes so. There is little question that the country ought to be doing more to address the situation. Also at PN, Rotimi Sankore presents a rather sophisticated cri de couer about the Zimbabwe situation in which, ultimately, Robert Mugabe’s endless reign of power is the crucial problem.

Privation connected to poverty and vulnerability to climate change is wreaking havoc throughout the continent. Lesotho continues to suffer from drought-fueled food shortages. The droughts have also affected Swaziland and South Africa. The economic crisis in Swaziland has led to increased sex trafficking among children as well as women. Informal settlements in Namibia are embody hell on earth. Climate change is leading to an increase in malaria cases in Kenya.

 The news of the increased UN-African Union peacekeeping presence has raised hopes of humanitarian relief for the people of Darfur. Sudan claims that it will support the troop presence. We;ll see how long Khartoum’s conciliatory attitude lasts. Some Sudanese, meanwhile, are looking to South Africa for a blueprint for peace.

At Foreign Policy Stephan Faris worries that the boomlet that parts of Africa appear to be enjoying might be chimerical, with oil fueling another manifestation of the resource curse. The Council for Foreign Relations explores the process of ”hunting for elusive peace.” Despite these real concerns, there also is real progress on parts of the continent, as Kofi Annan argues in the Mail & Guardian.

At The New Republic Eliza Griswold analyzes the Somalia crisis as “the other failed invasion,” which is problematic inasmuch as viewing Africa through the prism of Iraq manages to be both too Western-centric while at the same time allowing Iraq to disproportionately warp our views of other issues.

In order to address the mindboggling inflation rate in Zimbabwe (is it really possible that it could reach 100,000% by the end of the year?) the government has issued  a Z$200,000 note worth $1 US. Meanwhile, add water shortages to the daily sufferings of the people of Zim.  

A couple of items from West Africa caught my eye this morning:

Ghana recently discovered oil off of its coast. But oil has usually proven to be a mixed blessing in Africa, bringing with it what has come to be known as the “petro-curse”: Fueling kleptocracy and division, exploiting poor workers for the benefit of a few, ultimately leading to deeply divided and oftentimes violent societies. Ghana hopes to avoid the petro-curse.

Meanwhile The Financial Times has the transcript of an interview with Nigeria’s newly elected President Umaru Yar’Adua.

Despite the questionable legitimacy of the elections that brought him to power, Yar’Adua hops to be able to implement economic reforms and to open the political system. In so many ways, Nigeria can be an engine that powers the whole of West Africa, and so many observers are rooting for its success, yet the optimism has to be tempered by wariness given all that has gone before. 

First South African workers become embroiled in a general strike the end of which is not in sight. Now it appears that Nigerian workers are set to embark on their own general strike. The Nigerian strikes will be the result of rising fuel costs, an increase in Value Added Taxes, and the sale of government-owned oil refineries to cronies of Olusegun Obasanjo in the former President’s final days in office. The government has made some compromises, but not enough to placate the Nigeria Labour Congress.  

At Real Clear Politics Peter Brookes, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation and columnist for The New York Post, diagnosis our acute case of the Niger Delta Blues. We now import more oil than ever from Africa — moreso even than the Middle East, according to Brookes, though such numbers tend to be volatile — and yet instability and corruption in places such as Nigeria make for a potentially problematic, indeed explosive, situation.

Brookes’ solution is somewhat obvious: 

In the end, it’s going to take skilled diplomacy. Washington must engage-quietly, if necessary-Abuja to address development issues, political grievances, corruption and the ongoing security challenges, especially to the oil industry.

And yet the obvious solution in Africa so rarely emerges among American policymakers that those of us who write about African affairs tend to resemble voices in the wilderness when we voice them. Of course much of the burden, as Brookes makes clear, lies with the Nigerians themselves, but we will have to be skillful in our wielding of sticks and proferring of carrots to help promote stability, good governance, and a reduction of the almost overwhelming corruption that comes with oil riches in the Niger Delta. The question is whether we are up for the task. We seem so rarely to be when it comes to our African affairs.

China’s role in Africa will continue to grow in the coming decades. There are many reasons for this, not the least of which is China’s voracious appetite and need for oil. But the Chinese have shown little interest in issues related to human rights, which they always shrug off as being a matter of internal politics and thus no within their ambit, since the Chinese profess to value national sovereignty above all. (For a collection of posts on China and Africa over at dcat see here.)

It is almost impossible to tell whether China’s influence on Africa will be to the continent’s benefit or its detriment. Despite the fact that China clearly wants greater enagement with Africa than any other global power there is a certain level of asymmetry involved that is worrisome, and the Chinese disregard for human rights concerns indicates that Africa’s Big Men will be able to lean on Chinese support without having to undergo even a pretense of reform. Chinese support will thus prop us despots while milking the continent of resources and increasing dependence on a powerful and rich foreign state. These hardly are the ideal conditions for development.

One of the many reasons why Africa ought to matter more to the United States than it does is because it will continue to provide an important source of oil imports. This week Slate has been running four excerpts from John Ghazvinian’s book Untapped: The Scramble For Africa’s Oil. The excerpts include: Does Africa Measure Up To The hype?; Yes, We Have No Bananas; Will Oil Change Sao Tome and Principe?; and When ExxonMobil Came To Chad.

South Africa is not an oil-rich country. But that does not mean that these questions are not pertinent to South Africa. For one thing, South Africa is a regional power, maybe the regional power, and so continent-wide stability is of more than passing interest to the ANC government. Furthermore, South Africa imports oil and is involved in these economic questions. And as importantly, South Africa must look to the relationship “The West” is forging with wariness of the neocolonial implications, but also with a sense of concern that it might be supplanted as, by and large, the most important African nation in the eyes of the United States and its allies.