South Africa

Here is a quick roundup of some Africa-related news stories that have caught my eye in recent days:

Despite the fact that the media lives by the age-old credo “if it bleeds it leads” with regard to crime stories, which serves to warp people’s perspectives on the nature and frequency of crime, violent crime rates are actually dropping in Gauteng.

Does the recent peace agreement in Kenya signal better days ahead? Roger Cohen of The New York Times thinks as much.

Robert Mugabe might be starting what he believes to be his “march to victory,” but increasingly members of Zanu-PF are throwing their support behind Mugabe’s intrepid challenger, Simba Makoni. I still do not see Mugabe allowing Makoni to wrest his crown away, but if somehow it happens, I envision many of even Mugabe’s most ardent supporters responding to Mugabe’s defeat in the same way that the Wicked Witch’s praetorian guard responded after Dorothy liquidated their boss: “Hail Simba!”

One trend that I have noticed in American sports is the increasing presence of African athletes making their mark on the playing fields. Many of these athletes came to the United States when they were young children, many others were born in the United States to African parents, and still others found themselves face-to-face with American college coaches whose recruiting tentacles extend wider and deeper with each pasisng year. The usual push-pull factors are at play in these immigrant cases: On the run from war or privation or political chaos, drawn to the idea of America as the land of opportunity. The New York Times has the story of one such athlete, Hasheem Thabeet, a 7′ 3″ center for the University of Connecticut’s men’s basketball team who has become something of a folk hero in his native Tanzania.

Finally, what does it mean to be a citizen of a country? Is it sufficient to be born there? must one’s parents also be citizens of the country? Ireland is one of many nations dealing with these questions, and African immigrants represent the political football being kicked around.

There is lots going on these days across the continent, so without further palaver, I’ll point you in the right directions to catch up.

Your first stop should probably be the latest Pambazuka News, which has useful articles on Chad, Zimbabwe, lots on Kenya, and other important issues. From there you can go to the latest AfricaFocus Bulletin, which casts its gaze on Chad and makes clear that the crisis in that country represents far more than merely a subsidiary crisis of the turmoil in Darfur.

Kenya will likely continue to dominate the news cycle from Africa. Kofi Annan has clarified — some might say backed down from — his “grand coalition” proposal to solve that country’s political crisis. At the Mail & Guardian Kwamboka Oyaro wonders whether the Grand Coalition, or whatever one chooses to call it, really is the viable solution to the problems that underlie Kenya’s fractured political culture. Meanwhile with an eye toward the future, some Kenyans are preparing for a Truth and Reconciliation Commission to address the recent violence and other human rights violations. But the devil is in the details, and the question of amnesty will surely prove to be a serious sticking point.

At IOL Chris Chikana tries to figure out whether or not Simba Makoni poses a serious threat to Robert Mugabe’s leadership. He elides giving any real conclusions. I maintain that the challenge, whether fruitless or not, is necessary.

Finally, Richard Cornwell, a senior research associate at the Institute for Security Studies, reminds readers of The Mail & Guardian not to overlook Swaziland’s upcoming elections, which he believes run the risk of being as beset by violence and perfidy as those in Kenya and which we ought to worry about as we do what may come in Zimbabwe.

Kofi Annan seems optimistic that he can broker agreements in Kenya that will allow for that country to begin to heal. One of the key elements to any solution appears to be the establishment of a coalition government that will sit until the country can hold new elections, which would probably not take place until 2009. In the meantime an independent panel would investigate what went wrong in the recent polls that have led to the disputed reelection of President Mwai Kibaki and that fueled the political violence that has engulfed parts of Kenya and has resulted in at least 1000 deaths. In the end, Kenya’s is a political crisis, and thus requires political solutions.

Not all observers are thrilled with Annan’s intervention. Justice Minister Martha Karua, the head of the government team at Kenya’s crisis talks, has been critical of Annan for allegedly misrepresenting the state of the complex and fragile negotiations. Nonetheless, if Annan can help to broker peace and establish the parameters for future elections and maybe even political transformation in a country that until recently seemed a like a model for post-colonial, post-Big Man politics in Africa, he surely warrants a great deal of praise and respect. As one who had serious problems with the United Nations during Annan’s tenure there, I nonetheless admire his efforts today. It remains to be seen, however, if the efforts will translate into results. For the sake of the Kenyan people and their country’s future, let’s hope so.

Update: Today’s New York Times op-ed page has two pieces on Kenya, one from  Simiyu Barasa, a writer and filmmaker, the other by Maina Kiai, chairman of the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights and  L. Muthoni Wanyeki, the executive director of the Kenya Human Rights Commission, a nongovernmental organization.

Is there hope for an abatement of political violence in Kenya’s ongoing crisis? Despite more deaths in clashes between protesters and police, allegations of banditry, and fears of ethnic cleansing, guarded optimism may be in order as international appeals coupled with Kofi Annan’a active intervention appears to have led to an agreement between President Mwai Kibaki, whose dubious victory in a highly contested election fueled the current nightmare, and the opposition and its leader Raila Odinga. (The Council on Foreign Relations has a useful background primer on Kenyan politics.)

But the emphasis should be on “guarded.” Leaders who allow violence to be unleashed oftentimes find that their ability to marshal that violence becomes limited if nonexistent. Anarchy as a method of control, so popular among Big Men, has a way of spiralling out of control. Once convinced that one group of people is an enemy and violence is the only course of redress, even the most ardent followers will be tough to convince that violence should cease if the alleged enemy is still among them. Demogoguery, cult of personality, the unleashing of terror (and not the hackneyed “tribalism” that some are so quick to attribute when things go awry in Africa) — these things tend to get away from those who choose to use them as means and methods.

Privation connected to poverty and vulnerability to climate change is wreaking havoc throughout the continent. Lesotho continues to suffer from drought-fueled food shortages. The droughts have also affected Swaziland and South Africa. The economic crisis in Swaziland has led to increased sex trafficking among children as well as women. Informal settlements in Namibia are embody hell on earth. Climate change is leading to an increase in malaria cases in Kenya.

 The news of the increased UN-African Union peacekeeping presence has raised hopes of humanitarian relief for the people of Darfur. Sudan claims that it will support the troop presence. We;ll see how long Khartoum’s conciliatory attitude lasts. Some Sudanese, meanwhile, are looking to South Africa for a blueprint for peace.

At Foreign Policy Stephan Faris worries that the boomlet that parts of Africa appear to be enjoying might be chimerical, with oil fueling another manifestation of the resource curse. The Council for Foreign Relations explores the process of ”hunting for elusive peace.” Despite these real concerns, there also is real progress on parts of the continent, as Kofi Annan argues in the Mail & Guardian.

At The New Republic Eliza Griswold analyzes the Somalia crisis as “the other failed invasion,” which is problematic inasmuch as viewing Africa through the prism of Iraq manages to be both too Western-centric while at the same time allowing Iraq to disproportionately warp our views of other issues.

In order to address the mindboggling inflation rate in Zimbabwe (is it really possible that it could reach 100,000% by the end of the year?) the government has issued  a Z$200,000 note worth $1 US. Meanwhile, add water shortages to the daily sufferings of the people of Zim.  

On Sunday former United Nations Secretary general Kofi Annan gave the fifth annual Nelson Mandela lecture at Madiba’s foundation. In his talk Annan entreated African leaders to promote democracy and good governance and to disavow tyranny.

It turns out that throughout much of the continent, Africans are already heeding the call for democracy and away from kleptocracy and dictatorship. In the newest issue of The Journal of Democracy Daniel N. Posner and Daniel J. Young have an article posing the argument that peaceful transitions of power may well already be underway, with force having given way to a general trend toward the rule of law.  In sum, that Africans are benefiting from the “institutionalization of political power.”