South Africa

Here is a quick roundup of news stories this morning:

For three different perspectives on the general strike in South Africa see this story in the Mail & Guardian,  this from Green Left, and this from The Sowetan. (Hat tip to Peter Limb at H-SAfrica.)  See also this story from All Africa. And for concerns about the effect the strike will have on tourism, see here.

On the latest from Zimbabwe see this account of the ruling party’s meeting with the Movement for Democratic Change. Color me skeptical. This Michael Gerson piece in The Washington Post helps explain why. As does this.

The ANC leadership succession race is heating up. For some analysis see here.

Foreign Policy has released its annual Failed State Index, and sadly, though not unexpectedly, it is pregnant with African countries. The Mail & Guardian has more here. Not surprisingly, Sudan tops the list. And plucky little Guinea-Bissau is making its own mark by staking its claim as Africa’s cocaine capital.

Just some quick headlines from today:

The Springboks defeated Australia today in a nailbiter, 22-19, in the first leg of this year’s Tri-Nations. The Wallabies led 16-10 at the half and put up a more spirited front than most experts anticipated.

Author Ronald Suresh Roberts has published his long-awaited bography of Thabo Mbeki. The Star has an article that might or might not be an excerpt from the book — it is hard to tell — revealing Mbeki as  a man of the people, including the poor whites and Cherlize Theron. It is difficult to get a grip on the gravity of the book from this example, but it certainly has aroused controversy in some circles.

The nationwide strikes are at a “make or break” point as COSATU and the government prepare to lock horns on Sunday in hopesof breaking the impasse.

June 16 marks Youth Day in South Africa, and commemorates the anniversary of the start of the Soweto Uprising. It also has, according to the Zimbabwean opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), mobilized and inspired Zimbabwe’s young people, though so far whatever impetus those events have inspired have yet to yield fruit. The Mail & Guardian, meanwhile, uses June 16 to celebrate 100 young South Africans. The M&G recommends you take them to lunch.

Happy Youth Day. Honor the spirit of Soweto and remember what the events of that South African winter represent for the cause of freedom and human dignity.

A few headlines that have caught my attention as I enjoy the first days of my honeymoon in the Pacific Northwest:

Massive strikes, organized by the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), continue in South Africa. They have been largely peaceful, but as the strikes enter their third week there have been some incidents of violence and threats, though the army has been called out to ensure public safety. The central issue is pay for public-sector employees, and as the sides grow entrenched the threat of a “total shutdown” become more real. The trade union movement was central to the anti-apartheid movement and COSATU sees itself as the vanguard of left politics in South Africa. Given that the strike effectively pits COSATU against its tripartite ally the ANC it will be interesting to see what effect this has on the alliance and on the future of South African politics.

The cost of living in Zimbabwe continues to skyrocket. This comes amidst concerns that the Democratic Republic of Congo had shut off power supplies to the beleaguered people of Robert Mugabe’s thugocracy.

At NPR Correspondent Ofeibea Quist-Arcton discusses some of the latest issues facing Africans, including a bombing in Nairobi and the latest G8 summit. In a similarly Pan-African vein, the Mail & Guardian reports that African leaders hope to end the “theater of violence” that racks the continent. 

Cape Town mayor Helen Zille has easily dispatched of two rivals and will take the helm of the Democratic Alliance (DA), South Africa’s biggest opposition party. The DA emerged after the disintegration of the National Party and its various and tepid successors. As a consequence the DA drew some of its membership from Nats who found themselves homeless and white liberals who hoped to have a voice after the end of apartheid but did not want to join the ANC.

The hope that DA members have is that the party will grow and draw increased support from the black population. With the ANC facing a number of simultaneous challenges the DA sees itself in position to take advantage of the discontent with the ruling party. And perhaps the DA will in fact draw some support from the margins. But the reality continues to be that the ANC received a higher percentage of the vote in 2004 than it did in 1999 or 1994 despite the fact that much of the current displeasure with the ANC had already become part of the oppositional trope by the last election.

The ANC’s main divisions will be internal. The main threat the party will face will come not from the right, not from white liberals, reformed (gereformeerd?) Nats, and a smattering of black allies. A true challenge to the ANC will come from the left, and thus will come from within the tripartite coalition with the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) and the South African Communist Party (SACP). No matter how long South Africans look for a great white hope that can draw black allies to sweep the ANC out of power, the reality is that Helen Zille is not going to lead the most significant challenge to the ANC even if she heads the country’s largest opposition party, a status more grandiloquent than meaningful in the context of South African politics. Thabo Mbeki has much about which to be concerned. The DA ranks relatively low on that list.

Given it’s role as the largest anti-apartheid liberation organization, its central role in the transition to democracy, and its virtually insuperable status in the country’s politics today it should come as no suprise that the African National Congress is far and away the most scrutinized (and criticized) political party in South Africa. From issues of politics and policy that some fault Thabo Mbeki’s party for not addressing satisfactorily (crime, AIDS, poverty, continuing inequality) to internal strife (the myriad crises surrounding Jacob Zuma) to the natural backlash against the party in power, it is not always easy to sit in power, even if in each national election from 1994th ANC has actually consolodated its hold. Even as the party garners greater criticism, it seems to draw more support. At least in large part this can be explained by the lack of a viable opposition party.

This past week some of the ANC’s brightest lights met n Durban to try to smooth out some ruffles that have emerged between the national party leadership and the party’s hierarchy and rank-and-file in KwaZulu-Natal, where Zuma’s sacking hits closest to home. The leadership emerged proclaiming unity, but some observers, (see, for example, this analysis) take a more cynical approach, believing that the Durban meeting reveals fissures within the party and an ANC that is “troubled,” and perhaps in a state of crisis. Naturally, at least some observers, notably from the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) want to use the opportunity that the times provide to push the ANC to move its politics leftward.

I have long argued that if a viable challenge to the ANC ever emerges in South Africa it will not come from the old recidivist challenges from the white right, but rather will come from a splintering of the ANC-SACP-COSATU alliance. Perhaps South Africa approaches a time when the ANC will either swing to the left or else it will fracture, with SACP-COSATU forming a new party.

But as a new boook by Padraig O’Malley, Shades of Difference: Mac Maharaj and the Struggle for South Africa, indicates, the ANC has always dealt with internal division. The party’s leadership has always shown itself to be imaginative and clever when responding to crises. My guess is that Mbeki and company will be able to convince dissidents in SACP-COSATU and in KwaZulu-Natal that their interests are best served within the party, not operating from outside of it.     

Cape Town mayor Hellen Zille has announced that she will be running for the Democratic Alliance’s (DA) national leadership title, which will then put her in place to be the DA’s candidate for the presidency. Zille hopes to replace Tony Leon, who announced last year that he would not seek another term as party leader. Zille will continue to fulfill her mayoral duties.

Zille also commented on the role of the ANC, and on her hopes that the DA can help to forge the country’s future alongside the moderate forces of the ANC. She sees such an alliance as forestalling the ascendence of the country’s “far left,” especially if the ANC splits.

This strikes me as a wise strategy. The DA depicts itself as a party “vir all die mense” (”for all the people”), and yet the reality is that a predominantly white political party is not going to provide a viable alternative to the ANC. But if the DA can promote an alliance with the ANC if and when the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) and the South African Communist Party (SACP) split from the ANC, it might just have a future as something more than an asterisk in national politics.

Over the course of an interview in the Mail & Guardian Zwelinzima Vavi, the secretary general of the Congress of South African Trade Unions asserted that his organization wants to re-establish itself as a more powerful player within the African National Congress’ tripartite alliance of COSATU, the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the ANC itself. As to whether COSATU will separate itself from the ANC, at least for now, that does not seem to be on the table. vavi argues:

The ANC is a force of the left and my personal opinion is that it would be a mistake for the left to try and create their own new party. The ANC is the primary force; let’s fix it. There is no guarantee that a new left force will act any differently from the ANC. All left political parties that get into government are always shifting to the right, because in government the demands and realities that you have to deal with are different.

I have long argued that the most viable path to an alternative to the ANC would come from a fracturing of the tripartite alliance, with COSATU and the ANC stepping out and forming their own left wing party. In June 2006, for example, I wrote:

I have said it for years. The dominance of the African National Congress will not wane as the result of a challenge from the right. The days of the National Party and its inconsequential successors is past. There is room and a need for true conservatism (which I will then heartily oppose) in South Africa, but it cannot rise from the ashes of the Afrikaner Broederbond, the Afrikaner Weerstandsbeweging (AWB) or the Nats, new, old, gereformeerde or otherwise. The challenge, then, will come from the left. More accurately it will come as the result of a break in the tripartite alliance that makes up the ANC — the ANC, the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU). I am certainly not an original thinker on this point, but these are observations I have been making since 1997 so I feel some sense that my construction of the discussion, at least, is my own.

The reason one can envision such a break is because recently both COSATU and the SACP have been making noise indicating that they could, possibly, at some point, consider breaking fron the alliance and going forward on their own in the political waters. That it has taken this long, and that it might never come to pass, is testament to the hold that power has on any constituency that has it. Being in the ANC fold is a virtual guarantee of access, status, and viability — of, in essence, the concrete benefits of being in the catbird seat. COSATU and the SACP have always been second among equals, however, and this has long chafed the leadership of these organizations that, rightly, remind us of their vital role in the long liberation struggle. [. . .]

The SACP is antsy to push a socialist agenda. It is an agenda that, while it has some fruitful points, would, if implemented in toto, be an utter disaster in the one country that Africans across the continent simply cannot afford to go awry. COSATU rightly emphasizes the rights of workers, but like all unions is largely unconcerned with masses who live on the agricultural fringes and with those not within its ranks, which is to say, a majority of South Africans, a point that COSATU elides because to do otherwise would raise some uncomfortable questions.

South Africa has a parliamentary legislature that the ANC has dominated since 1994. I surmise that even after a break of the alliance the ANC will continue to do so. But its support levels will surely drop to or below where they were after the 1994 elections when the Nats and Inkatha Freedom Party, the one defunct the other irrelevant, drew support. This is to my mind a good thing. The ANC with too much support, which translates to too much power, frightens me. I’d like to think that South Africa is different from other African states, its leaders more sage, its democracy more stable, its juduciary and military more independent. But power is power, and when too much of it is consolodated for too long, such power becomes dangerous. Such a break would be especially good if it could be amicable — if COSATU and SACP can maintain an alliance on a large number of issues while pursuing their own course where there is divergence.

This is all by way of description — what I see happening — rather than prediction, though I have long held that in the long run the alliance would be untenable if the partners ultimately chose to care about more than simply maintaining their grip on the levers of control. It is a dynamic well worth watching in the weeks, months and years to come.

Despite Vavi’s assertions, an eventual break seems the most likely path to a viable national opposition party. It has long been clear that COSATU in particular is both unhappy with the current state of the relationship and wants serious systemic change. self-interest will only keep COSATU in the fold for so long if the organization firmly believes that a change is necessary. In the long run, the internal dynamics of this longstanding alliance will have a significant impact on the future of South African politics.