Zuma’s Hopes, Mbeki’s Wishes
Jacob Zuma twists in the wind, wondering whether the National Prosecuting Authority is going to reinstate corruption charges against him before the ANC’s December conference. If the NPA does recharge the embattled but still tremendously popular (in some circles, at least) Zuma, it will almost assuredly scuttle any hopes that he would be able to succeed Thabo Mbeki as ANC, and thus South Africa’s, President.
(Jacob Zuma)
Meanwhile, what of Mbeki’s wishes as to who will follow him in the party’s and state’s seat of power? Well, one possibility is that he will remain the party’s president, thus giving him the leverage effectively to appoint his own successor. If that situation comes to pass (and I, at least, wish Mbeki would remove himself from consideration for even the party Presidency, lest Big Man Syndrome By Proxy set in) who might Mbeki’s choices to lead the country be? According to a report in The Mail & Guardian:
If President Thabo Mbeki remains ANC president and therefore has the power to appoint his own successor, South Africa after 2009 will be run by his two most-trusted lieutenants, Minister of Foreign Affairs Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and government’s head of policy-making, Joel Netshitenzhe.
The strategy emerged in the Mbeki camp after deliberations with Netshitenzhe, who has insisted previously that he is not interested in holding any of the top positions in the party. But now he has been persuaded that the ANC needs him to step up to the plate and help wrest control from presidential hopeful Jacob Zuma.
(Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma)
That Dlamini-Zuma might succeed Mbeki, who has indicated that he would like to be succeeded by a woman, has aroused more than a little bit of excitement. But the fact that Mbeki seems to be willing to use the Zuma situation as a pretense to perpetuate his own power within the party is disquieting, even if his doing so is better than the rumors that he might want to change the Constitution to be able to serve as South Africa’s president for another term. Nonetheless, these machinations are also telling as to how deep the Mbeki-Zuma divide has become in the last few years.
(Jacob Zuma and Thabo Mbeki arrive at Adalaide Tambo’s memorial service in February 2007)
November 9th, 2007 at 9:10 pm
[…] all the details here […]
November 12th, 2007 at 12:46 pm
It looks as though Thabo Mbeki is in with a very good chance of being picked to become president of the ANC in December, and he’s doing all he can to make it happen. Mbeki learned his politics while in exile, when the ANC was an organization with a hard-as-nails Stalinist political culture. And the ruthless manner in which he flattened his opponents in the nineties in his race for the presidency must be a huge headache for Jacob Zuma.
Some say that if this happens the ANC will remain divided. So what? Is a united ANC a good or a bad thing? Isn’t the devil you know better than the one you’re wondering about? And wouldn’t Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma make a cute puppet for Mbeki to remote-control from Luthuli House?
November 12th, 2007 at 12:59 pm
I’d argue that “Stalinist” is an inflammatory overstatement that sheds more heat than light, but yes, clearly Mbeki’s experience in exile forged his political worldview and approach. The exile-imprisoned dynamic will long be a dividing line in the ANC.
I too see no problem with a divided ANC. In fact, were it nor for the perquisites of power that come with being in the ANC, I have long argued that COSATU/SACP would have broken away from the tripartite alliance. I suspect that someday they will do so.
You may be right that Mbeki is set up to be the ANC president after December’s meetings, but I am not certain that is a foregone conclusion. For example, I do not see Ramaphosa settling for half measures if he decides to allow his hat to be tossed in the ring. And while Dlamini-Zuma clearly is Mbeki’s chosen one, sometimes the chosen one can disappoint those who did the choosing.
Thanks again for your perceptive comments, hex.
dc
December 5th, 2007 at 2:39 am
can i receive more information zuma and south african politics and the “road to polokwane”
December 5th, 2007 at 8:38 pm
I would suggest, if I may be so self-indulgent, following my link on Zuma which is to the right. You also can find a welath of information on my blogroll, including news sources such as the Mail & Guardian, IOl, and others. But by hitting “Jacob Zuma” under my categories you’ll get all of my posts involving Zuma, and those posts will have links within them.
Thanks for reading –
dc