Zuma, Ramaphosa, and the Succession Battle
The ANC succession battle continues to emit heat if not light. Zwelinzima Vavi, general-secretary of Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), recently remarked that “Many of the millions who are unemployed, or whose jobs have been casualised, are even worse off than under apartheid: about 20 million of our people are still mired in poverty, we still face many challenges, and the task of transformation is far from complete,” which drew a lot of attention recently and seems to augur well for Jacob Zuma. Zuma, for all of his recent troubles, enjoys the support of the country’s unions. Vavi’s overstatement (and it is a serious overstatement that seems blindly amnesiac about the country’s apartheid history) nonetheless reveals the frustration of masses of South Africans who perceive the African National Congress as having abandoned their interests.
The more traditional wing of the ANC, meanwhile, has its own dream candidate. Unfortunately, that candidate has not actually indicated that he plans to run. Nonetheless, Cyril Ramaphosa’s candidacy has excited large numbers of South Africans who see the former liberation hero-turned master negotiator-turned successful businessman as the party’s best hope to escape its divisions and seeming stalemate. The question remains, however, whether Ramaphosa can be pulled into the campaign despite his reluctance. The Gaby Shapiro Branch of the ANC in Rondebosch is banking that Ramaphosa can be convinced to run and have nominated him as one of its preferred candidates to lead the party. The smart money says not to count Ramaphosa out.
The ANC race has hardly yet come down to just two candidates, and we will almost assuredly see the floating of many other names (including a woman, perhaps?) as possibilities. The next six weeks will represent one of the most crucial periods in South African political history.
November 7th, 2007 at 10:45 pm
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November 8th, 2007 at 12:29 pm
I thought I heard Ramaphosa say he’s interested. Jacob Zuma’s dicey now that he’ll probably have to appear in court on corruption charges. Helen Zille says the ANC conference should be delayed until Zuma’s problems are sorted out, but Patricia de Lille doesn’t agree, says everyone’s equal before the law. The ANC Women’s League has nominated Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma for president; she’s definitely keen. Hell, everyone’s dead keen, they’re just not supposed to say so. This whole thing will be just like electing the Pope, we’ll have to wait for white smoke to emerge from Polokwane.
November 8th, 2007 at 4:16 pm
Hex –
Good points.
I’d argue that Zuma being brought up on charges again might have the opposite effect of what you suspect: In certain circles, the very circles in which he has the strongest support — these sorts of charges just serve as evidence that the ANC has it out for Zuma. It’s the sort of paranoid conspiracy theory that allows for even the gravest behavior to fall under the penumbra of apologia. The same phenomenon surrounds Winnie Mandela.
I probably should have mentioned Dlamini-Zuma by name.
i love the Pope metaphor. And I think you’re right — in America too you see this will he or won’t he coyness that politicians love to engage in. It allows them to pretend they are giving in to the peoples’ will rather than running out of a sense of self aggrandizement. though I do get the sense that Ramaphosa really hoped a strong, viable contender would step forward.
Cheers –
dc
November 13th, 2007 at 9:37 am
I hope that Zuma will win this race. I am not a great fan of Zuma but I think anyone except Mbeki will make a good President. Im saying this because i see Mbeki’s insistence to run for ANC presidency as a ploy to hang on to Power.
If Mbeki wins we will see a continuation of his strategy that includes appointment of an incompetent president who will happily take orders from him.
Mbeki’s main weakness is arrogance and his exaggerated sense of intelligence. I think Zuma will be more willing to listen to the people. The potential of this country is suppressed because we have a President who is not ready to listen to anyone but himself and his yes man and women. Mbeki is also sacrificing the people of this country by shielding a dodgy character like the police commissioner jackie selebi. What shocks me is the extent to which Mbeki was prepared to temper with the judiciary to achieve this end. The question is why?
Zuma will be different because he will take the advise of intelligent men and women inside and outside of the ANC.
November 26th, 2007 at 11:27 am
Rendani –
Thanks for the input. I am frankly a bit concerned about whther or not Zuma really is a man of the people, or whather that is simply his pathy to power. I wory that he might be a demogogue. I also worry about the image it projects when a man who in a span of months was accused and charged with both rape and corruption attains the party’s nomination for its presidency. Even if he is acquitted of all charges, enough information has emerged to make us realize that he out himself in some fairl;y sleazy positions.
Cheers –
dc