South Africa

The ANC Policy Conference in Midrand wraps up today after three days of political dialogue that the Mail & Guardian has described as “robust.” Despite Thabo Mbeki’s protests that things have not been too robust, certain issues that we have discussed here before — succession, the linkage between the party leadership and the national presidency — demand serious, and thus sometimes intense discussion. Mbeki’s desire to downplay internal division makes sense from the vantage point of the party. That same division, however, is healthy for the country. When that debate falls silence is truly when the time to worry will have arrived. Viva contentiousness.

Incidentally, Mbeki has been busy these days. In addition to dealing with feisty ANC politicians he also is the head of the South African delegation to the African Union summit in Accra that, as I reported yesterday, might be pushing toward the establishment of a United States of Africa.

 Meanwhile officials have announced that the main South Africa-Mozambique border crossing at Ressano Garcia is extending its hours from 10 pm until midnight. Anyone who has crossed that border knows that anything that might alleviate congestion represents a welcome change.

Your faithful scribe is almost but not quite back home and thus to something resembling normalcy. Full-scale blogging should resume next week. In the meantime, here are some Africa-related links:

In Zimbabwe the Interception of Communications Bill only awaits Robert Mugabe’s signature. My guess is he’s thrilled to do so, helping seal Zimbabwe’s totalitarian status. Meanwhile MacDonald Dzirutwe avers in the Mail & Guardian that Mugabe’s newest get-tough economic policies are likely to represent only a short-term palliative with deleterious long-range effects.

It is now Congo-Brazzaville’s opportunity to hold elections that raise all sorts of questions about probity, organizational skills, effectiveness, and the like.

In the category of “this comes as news to whom, exactly?” we must place a refugees International report that asserts that Sudan’s rape laws are making the human rights catastrophe in Darfur worse. I do not aim my sarcasm at Refugees International, but rather at a crisis that is so far gone that such obvious accounts still qualify as being significantly newsworthy.

In Accra we might soon find out if we are closer to seeing the emergence of a United States of Africa. Just five years after its inception as a new and better organization of African states, the African Union (AU) debates tightening their confederation even more.  

 In South Africa:

Petrol prices continue to pose problems, with recent price drops in some areas accompanied by price hikes in others. 

As the ANC meets to debate future directions, the party’s succession battle accelerates, with a question that has been a subtext for some time now rising to the fore – does the party leader of necessity have to be the political standard bearer? Meanwhile, Thabo Mbeki has not so subtly hinted to the South African Communist Party (SACP) that it might be time for the comrades to steer their own separate course. I have argued for years that the only serious challenge to the ANC will come from the left, not the right, from black politicians, not disenchanted whites. Apparently Mbeki is willing to accelerate the process.

The mass action strikes are finally over. A South African cabinet minister and a prominent labour leader weigh in on their meaning.

Finally, the Springboks have had their luggage pilfered.  Is this another angle for the South African crime epidemic? Not exactly. The thefts appear to have occurred in Australia, where the South African ruggers are preparing for the next part of their Tri-Nations away leg.  

The United Nations Population Fund speculates that the urban population of Africa will more than double in the next quarter century. Obviously the ripple effects of this would be serious. It’s probably worth pointing out that dire population predictions have something of a mixed history, but the UNPF report indicates that 80% of the world’s population will live in the developing world by 2030 with huge ramificatioins for poerty, development, health, food supplies, and just about every other aspect of daily life.

The Gods of sport can be cruel; they surely have a well-developed sense of timing. A week after South Africa came from behind to beat a surprisingly game Australia team in their first meeting in this year’s rugby Tri-Nations competition, the Springboks succumbed to a resilient New Zealand All Blacks squad, which scored two tries in two minutes late in the game to win by a final tally of 26-21. The Springboks missed some opportunities to put the game away early (a trend that almost cost them last week as well) and ran out of steam at the end, and while South African optimism coming into the match may have proven premature, observers still have found some positives and room for optimism for the away legs of the Tri Nations. This South African squad will not be afraid to play in hostile environments, and the team and its supporters need to take a long-range view. The Tri Nations is still up for grabs, albeit with New Zealand in control of their own fate, but more importantly, South Africa continues to be on pace to contend in France later this year.

A couple of stories worth following as your faithful scribe continues his honeymoon on the west coast of British Columbia: 

A recent UN report indicates that human trafficking is on the rise in East Africa.

Hopes for peace in Sudan ebb and flow, wax and wane. Right now they flow and wax. Not to be pessimistic, but soon enough they’ll ebb and wane. My FPA colleague Daniel Graeber looks at war crimes in Darfur in the latest Great Decisions Analysis. You can also follow his work on the FPA War Crimes Blog.

First South African workers become embroiled in a general strike the end of which is not in sight. Now it appears that Nigerian workers are set to embark on their own general strike. The Nigerian strikes will be the result of rising fuel costs, an increase in Value Added Taxes, and the sale of government-owned oil refineries to cronies of Olusegun Obasanjo in the former President’s final days in office. The government has made some compromises, but not enough to placate the Nigeria Labour Congress.  

South African rugby coach Jake White leads South African optimism about this weekend’s Tri-Nations clash with their biggest rivals, the All Blacks of New Zealand, arguing that his team respects but does not fear their haka-dancing foes.  In terms of their preparations the Springboks are treating this weekend like the World Cup Finals.

 As a motivational tool such an approach makes some sense, but given the way that fortunes change in world class rugby, Amabokkobokko need to keep their eyes on the prize. The Tri-Nations tournament is usually the best in the world in any given years, but every four years the World Cup is the only competition that matters. White does not want his charges to peak too soon. By all means, beat the All Blacks. But keep in mind that beating them now, and in so doing in all likelihood winning the Tri Nations, will seem pretty hollow solace if they do not follow it by hoisting the William Webb Ellis Cup in France later this year.

Here is a quick roundup of news stories this morning:

For three different perspectives on the general strike in South Africa see this story in the Mail & Guardian,  this from Green Left, and this from The Sowetan. (Hat tip to Peter Limb at H-SAfrica.)  See also this story from All Africa. And for concerns about the effect the strike will have on tourism, see here.

On the latest from Zimbabwe see this account of the ruling party’s meeting with the Movement for Democratic Change. Color me skeptical. This Michael Gerson piece in The Washington Post helps explain why. As does this.

The ANC leadership succession race is heating up. For some analysis see here.

Foreign Policy has released its annual Failed State Index, and sadly, though not unexpectedly, it is pregnant with African countries. The Mail & Guardian has more here. Not surprisingly, Sudan tops the list. And plucky little Guinea-Bissau is making its own mark by staking its claim as Africa’s cocaine capital.

Just some quick headlines from today:

The Springboks defeated Australia today in a nailbiter, 22-19, in the first leg of this year’s Tri-Nations. The Wallabies led 16-10 at the half and put up a more spirited front than most experts anticipated.

Author Ronald Suresh Roberts has published his long-awaited bography of Thabo Mbeki. The Star has an article that might or might not be an excerpt from the book — it is hard to tell — revealing Mbeki as  a man of the people, including the poor whites and Cherlize Theron. It is difficult to get a grip on the gravity of the book from this example, but it certainly has aroused controversy in some circles.

The nationwide strikes are at a “make or break” point as COSATU and the government prepare to lock horns on Sunday in hopesof breaking the impasse.

June 16 marks Youth Day in South Africa, and commemorates the anniversary of the start of the Soweto Uprising. It also has, according to the Zimbabwean opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), mobilized and inspired Zimbabwe’s young people, though so far whatever impetus those events have inspired have yet to yield fruit. The Mail & Guardian, meanwhile, uses June 16 to celebrate 100 young South Africans. The M&G recommends you take them to lunch.

Happy Youth Day. Honor the spirit of Soweto and remember what the events of that South African winter represent for the cause of freedom and human dignity.

Zimbabwe’s lower house of Parliament on Wednesday passed the Interception of Communications Bill, which would allow the government to monitor phones, the internet, and the mail in the interests of “public security.” Opposition leaders, such as those from the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), have mouthed platitudes about protecting the country from terrorist threats (as if such dangers even ranked in the top twenty that the country faces right now) but in actuality are fearful that such legislation merely removes another barrier to Robert Mugabe’s unfettered tyranny.