South Africa

Dr. Mannavar Sivakumar, chief of the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) agricultural meteorology division, argues that Africans need to be more aware and “proactive” on the issue of climate change:

 ”He said it was ‘critical’ for Africa, which forecasters predict will be the region worst affected by changing weather patterns, to get its act together. ‘Africa is projected to have a large area covered with arid or semi-arid regions; as the population increases, there will be an increase in demand [for food] while on the other hand there will be less precipitation on account of climate change [to support agriculture]: this will be a ‘double killer’.'”

But this “double killer” also represents something of a dual-edged sword.  While climate change will have deleterious effects for Africans, many rightfully ask if they will have to stall industrial development until they can afford to go green even while the west has been able to go through industrial growth while utilizing technologies that have always been far more growth-friendly than earth-friendly. The poorest nations on Earth will have to confront this problem most acutely, though so too will giants such as China and India.

My colleague Bill Hewitt is doing yeoman’s work over at the FPA Climate Change Blog. He addresses these issues in far greater depth and with far more acuity than I ever could.

Update: Along the lines of Africans taking the initiative on issues related to the environment, climate change and the like, Cape Town seems poised to become Africa’s first “Green City.” 

At Real Clear Politics Peter Brookes, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation and columnist for The New York Post, diagnosis our acute case of the Niger Delta Blues. We now import more oil than ever from Africa — moreso even than the Middle East, according to Brookes, though such numbers tend to be volatile — and yet instability and corruption in places such as Nigeria make for a potentially problematic, indeed explosive, situation.

Brookes’ solution is somewhat obvious: 

In the end, it’s going to take skilled diplomacy. Washington must engage-quietly, if necessary-Abuja to address development issues, political grievances, corruption and the ongoing security challenges, especially to the oil industry.

And yet the obvious solution in Africa so rarely emerges among American policymakers that those of us who write about African affairs tend to resemble voices in the wilderness when we voice them. Of course much of the burden, as Brookes makes clear, lies with the Nigerians themselves, but we will have to be skillful in our wielding of sticks and proferring of carrots to help promote stability, good governance, and a reduction of the almost overwhelming corruption that comes with oil riches in the Niger Delta. The question is whether we are up for the task. We seem so rarely to be when it comes to our African affairs.

Over at The Boston Globe Derrick Z. Jackson reminds readers that among Jerry Falwell’s many loathsome views, the recently departed openly and unrepentantly supported Apartheid South Africa. While it may not be especially edifying to dance on a man’s grave, there also are few reasons to celebrate Falwell’s life in which hatred was couched in a flatulent and warped version of Christianity.  

China’s role in Africa will continue to grow in the coming decades. There are many reasons for this, not the least of which is China’s voracious appetite and need for oil. But the Chinese have shown little interest in issues related to human rights, which they always shrug off as being a matter of internal politics and thus no within their ambit, since the Chinese profess to value national sovereignty above all. (For a collection of posts on China and Africa over at dcat see here.)

It is almost impossible to tell whether China’s influence on Africa will be to the continent’s benefit or its detriment. Despite the fact that China clearly wants greater enagement with Africa than any other global power there is a certain level of asymmetry involved that is worrisome, and the Chinese disregard for human rights concerns indicates that Africa’s Big Men will be able to lean on Chinese support without having to undergo even a pretense of reform. Chinese support will thus prop us despots while milking the continent of resources and increasing dependence on a powerful and rich foreign state. These hardly are the ideal conditions for development.

With the chaos in Zimbabwe and the utter catastrophe that is Sudan, it is easy to let the evergreen of African nightmares slip across the transom unnoticed. But rest assured, the Democratic Republic of the Congo still stands astride Africa’s Big Men like a colossus. The DRC may temporarily find itself displaced in this dubious game, but that status usually does not last long. Louise Arbour, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, is visiting Congo-Kinshasa this week and has declared that “Grave human rights violations occur almost every day in DRC as the perpetrators are encouraged by a climate of impunity that reigns virtually throughout this country.”  

(Tokyo Sexwale Pictured With Nelson Mandela.) 

Tokyo Sexwale is an ANC Stalwart, former premiere of Gauteng, and multimillionaire businessman. The chairman of Mvelaphanda Group has been in the news a great deal lately. He recently drew headlines for joining the Washington, DC-Based Brookings Institution’s International Advisory Council (IAC).  The IAC is a “group of 24 distinguished individuals from around the world who helped to provide the US think-tank with global insights on its mission and research agenda,” established by Strobe Talbott, the Brookings Institution president and former deputy secretary of State under Bill Clinton.

As the ANC succession battle heats up and the procedural machinations follow, Sexwale has not exactly been quick to dismiss rumors that he has his eye on the ANC presidency, which in turn would likely assure that he would succeed Thabo Mbeki as the country’s president. The timing of his recent criticisms of “silent diplomacy” toward Zimbabwe certainly indicates that Sexwale has serious political aspirations.

Tensions between Australia and Zimbabwe are reaching unprecedented heights as the Aussies are unexpectedly taking global leadership in isolating Robert Mugabe’s thugocracy. First Australia decided to cancel its cricket tour in Zimbabwe in September. Now the Australian government has announced that it is going to fund Mugabe’s opponents to the tune of $18 million Australian, or $15 million US.

Obviously this will give Mugabe the opportunity to vent his spleen  against his favorite anachronistic bugaboo, the imperialist west, but that should not deter other countries from following suit. Mugabe will, after all, invoke the imperialist past to deflect even the most tepid of criticism. Already Zimbabwe’s Information and Publicity Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu has fumed that Austraian prime Minister John Howard “must learn to accept that Zimbabwe is a sovereign state … not a British colony.” But Zimbabwe’s fulminations should by now be of no moment. Mugabe’s ruthlessnes long ago meant that his disdain for human rights cast his sovereignty in serious dubt. If foreign intervention comes, Mugabe has nothing but his megalomania to blame.

Crossposted from dcat.

There is probably no better major newspaper in America when it comes to the issue of Northern Ireland than The Boston Globe. That probably should come as no surprise given Boston’s affinity for and association with the Irish. The Globe’s editorial this past week on the ongoing transitions in Northern Ireland, in which the lion has laid down with the lamb, or at least Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionist Party have gotten the provincial legislature off the ground at Stormont, is perceptive. Here is the money excerpt:

Milestones toward peace in Northern Ireland seem to arrive every six months, but until now they have not produced the breakthrough that would bring tranquility to the six counties. This time, however, the amity between Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionist Party seemed genuine as they re-started the provincial government Tuesday. If these old adversaries can get along with no more than the usual friction among coalition partners, the conflict really is over.

Some might raise eyebrows over where the Globe gives credit:

Credit for reconciling the extreme wing of Irish nationalism to nonviolent politics goes to Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness, his chief lieutenant and deputy first minister in the provincial government. They were among the leaders of the Irish Republican Army (Adams denies this but few believe him), and they realized more than two decades ago that the IRA could not win the war against unionism and Britain.

Despite its potentially controversial implications, this last point is worth emphasizing: The IRA could not win the war, a war, against the British. But I am reminded of the circumstances in South Africa in the late 1980s and early 1990s when most observers were well aware that the ANC could not win a war against the South African Defense Forces, the South African Police, and the other elements of the security apparatus. But there was a flip side to that coin: Neither could the South Africans completely crush the opposition movement. And so stasis led to change. Similarly in Northern Ireland, the British were never going to be able to crush entirely the IRA and its affiliated allies. And so stasis led to change. The analogy is not perfect of course — historical analogies rarely are — and yet its broad contours ring true. It will be easy to be warily cynical about the peace process in Northern Ireland, and yet if ever a time existed for optimism, however cautious, to trump pessimism, this seems to be it.

In recent weeks there have been several travel articles on South Africa. Cape Town and its environs , of course, are always popular, as recent articles in The New York Times and Washington Post reveal. 

But the country’s hinterlands are also popular. The Eastern cape, one of my regular stomping grounds, is a wonderful and often-overlooked part of the country and it is viable for budget travel.

Indeed, the entire country can be very accessible for those for whom every rand will count. South Africa can be expensive to reach, but once there it literally offers opportunities for those with more cash than they know what to do with or for those on a student’s income. 

Just some quick updates on stories I have reported in recent days:

Australian Prime Minister John Howard has heard the voices of conscience in his country and across the globe and he has announced the cancellation of the Aussie cricket team’s tour of Zimbabwe that was scheduled for September. Australia’s governing body for the sport, Cricket Australia, is seeking an alternative neutral venue to hold the matches, likely in South Africa. 

Meanwhile outside fury continues to fester in the wake of the announcement that Zimbabwe will lead the United Nations’ Commission on Sustainable Economic Development. What is most peculiar is that even as alarm over the crisis is clearly growing among African nations, it seems evident that the support for Zimbabwe represents growing dissatisfaction of the developing world toward the west. The sentiment and frustration is understandable; the means of expression is pretty much unjustifiable. 

Finally, Thabo Mbeki has recently made efforts to assuage a possibly shaky world, including the leadership of FIFA, the international governing body of soccer/football that South Africa is prepared successfully to stage the 2010 World Cup. Morocco, which was once seen as South Africa’s chief competition for the 2010 bid, has thrown its support behind Mbeki and the South African effort.